The AltRaps Blog

Where the team stands

The holidays are over, and how. After returning from their marathon 7-game road trip with an as-good-as-can-be-expected 3-4 record, the Raptors endured a shellacking at the hands of Detroit, who still look like the class of the conference despite being written down, if not off, by several pundits pre-season. Toronto played passably for the first 21 minutes and appeared to be in the game, and then the wheels came off.

They followed up this admittedly expected loss with a more disappointing one. Having soundly spanked Cleveland in the first quarter and only slightly relieving the pressure in the second quarter, LeBron broke free of his shackles and single-handedly beat the Raptors. Coming from behind as they did, this loss should strike fear into the hearts of Bosh and company. Moon and Parker played LeBron so well in the first half, only to forget what they did after the break. The cause was not helped by the fact that your shooting guard is routinely out-rebounding your centre.

These two home losses - a rarity last year for one of the league’s better home teams – have left the Raptors at the .500 mark, tied with Cleveland. The same Cleveland whose star player has been quoted as saying he sometimes feels like he’s alone on the court. Wonderful. The losses, combined with inactivity by Washington and New Jersey, have slid the Raptors to 7^th in the East, and an unenviable first-round loss, I mean match-up with Detroit. However, the next two games are as close to “gimmes” as you can get in this league, with Philadelphia coming to visit followed by a trip to MSG. A win in each of these would put Toronto up to 4^th, presuming Jersey wins one of 3 (Charlotte, Seattle and Boston), Washington wins 1 of 3 (Houston, Atlanta and Boston) and Cleveland wins 2 of 3 (Seattle, Charlotte, Atlanta). This would have us in an equally horrible first-round against Cleveland. Although I feel we can beat Cleveland, it requires a sustained effort against Mr James like they had in the first half on Sunday. I don’t think they can do it.

In fact, the best first-round matchup for Toronto, given that 4^th to 8^th are our only realistic targets, would be Orlando. Chris Bosh always has a strong game against them, and Rashard Lewis is a lot streakier than LeBron, meaning that Moon and Parker would be less taxed. Jameer Nelson has fallen to 3^rd or 4^th in the pecking order behind Howard, Lewis and possibly Turkoglu. Hedo is having a very strong season but he’s streaky too. Depth counts for less in the playoffs, with starters playing so many minutes, but eve the 6^th and 7^th men on the Orlando bench are not as strong as Toronto’s.

Ford vs. Calderon, redux

Do we have any bright sides right now? Well, TJ Ford is still out. This means more of Jose Calderon getting 40 minutes per, dishing out crazy high assist numbers and never turning the ball over. It’s been said to death, but the extended time Calderon has received has only served to further the argument that Ford should go. You can bang on all you want about how we have to keep them both in case one goes down with injury. The fact is, Colangelo and Swirsky have been force-feeding us that crap in the event that Ford went down with injury. The likelihood of Calderon going down is no higher than anyone else, but Ford was a known worry. Calderon was his insurance, it’s not a mutual thing as the talking heads want you to think.

There are those who will tell you that trading for and then extending Ford in the light of his condition was a bad idea. They’ll also tell you that this injury was inevitable. Funny, he seemed to avoid it pretty well last season, despite falling more than once on his spine. To me the trade was an acceptable gamble. CV wasn’t going to do much with Bargnani coming in (whether or not that was a good idea will be discussed shortly), and Calderon was not ready to take the reins. Ford had a great season last year, and had started this year positively. But for a freak accident, on a nasty but unintentional play, he’d still be doing so.

Thanks Al Horford.

As long as Ford is active, he’s taking minutes from Jose. Coming into this season, the knock on Jose was his inability or unwillingness to take the team on his shoulders when the offence is struggling and score some points himself. TJ never had a problem doing that. Jose has started to show that he can and will do that, although he still appears reluctant from time to time. With the gradual removal of that final hurdle, the only difference between them is speed, and the ability to take care of the ball. No doubt that TJ is naturally faster than Jose, but having seen Calderon stick to Parker, himself lightning of the greased variety, I don’t believe Jose’s shortcoming here is as large as you’d think. On offence it’s even less noticeable, as a quick first step and an ability to deceive with it are just as important. On the flipside, TJ’s turnovers are not as high as they could be, as even when he was starting the Raptors were still #1 for turnovers in the league. The difference between them is slightly greater than the speed difference, but not enough to decide things in numero ocho’s favour.

The deciding factor, then, is cost. Ford is on the books for $8 million, I believe. Jose, less than half that. If we are going to trade one of them, and we should at this point, then Ford is going to bring more back the other way. Plus, Calderon is going to merit a huge raise very shortly, probably making him a base year player, which is salary cap-ese for “nigh untradeable”. We will be able to offer Calderon big money because we have what is known as “Bird rights” – in a nutshell, when a player has played 3 consecutive seasons for a team, their contract offer to him can take them over the salary cap, and they can offer a higher max salary. Any other team has to stay within the cap or offer the mid-level exemption.

The Andrea Bargnani Conundrum Debate (ABCD, get it? Oh bugger off then.)

There are numerous basketball “fans” who are ready to proclaim Bargnani as the biggest bust since Radojevic. I’ve even seen it said that he sucks.

Wow. And not Wow, Sudan, birthplace of Luol Deng. Just wow.

First and foremost, the 15^th player on the worst team in the NBA could come to any one of these so-called fans’ home towns, play in a pickup game, and run concentric circles around each and every one of the players there. Nobody in the NBA “sucks”. Now that I’ve got that off my chest, let’s address the real issue here: is Bargnani a bust?

The answer, as far as I’m concerned, is a resounding “NO!” Coming into the draft, Andrea was hailed as the next Dirk Nowitzki. Here’s Dunking Dirk’s first 3 seasons:

Per Game	Team	G	GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TOPG	PFPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
1998-99	Dal	47	24	20.4	8.2	3.4	1.0	0.6	0.6	1.6	2.2	.405	.206	.773
1999-00	Dal	82	81	35.8	17.5	6.5	2.5	0.8	0.8	1.7	3.1	.461	.379	.830
2000-01	Dal	82	82	38.1	21.8	9.2	2.1	1.0	1.2	1.9	3.0	.474	.387	.838

From the table, you can see that Andrea’s rookie year was light-years ahead of Dirk’s, without even seeing the actual numbers. Here they are, for comparison:

Per Game	Team	G	GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TOPG	PFPG	FG%	3P%	FT%
2006-07	Tor	65	2	25.1	11.6	3.9	0.8	0.5	0.8	1.6	2.8	.427	.373	.824
2007-08	Tor	30	17	23.5	9.7	3.5	1.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.8	.390	.398	.776

We’re going to ignore free throw percentage, steals and fouls per game, as they are meaningless at the levels indicated here for the position played. Andrea’s points are down from last year, partly due to the extended slump he appears to be coming out of, and partly because Toronto’s scoring in general is down this year. The Raptors have also had a tendency this year to score by platoon, with 3 or 4 players in the high teens. Obviously not conducive to high scoring averages. Of course, Andrea still has 48 games to increase his average, and he has shown signs over the past few games that his extended slump might just be ending. I won’t even mention the fact that Dirk was, by the end of the 99-00 season, the primary scoring option in Dallas, because it’s not necessary. The difference in blocks is negligible, and this is one case where I will mention the difference in playing time, because per 48 minutes Dirk’s second-season average was 0.96 BPG, identical to Andrea’s so far this year. I actually think Andrea is a better shot-blocker, based on what I have seen on his timing, but he rarely finds himself in position to help, which is something that needs work. If he can fix this, he has the ability to be blocking over 1 per game.

The big disparity of course is in rebounding. Andrea has been taking flak since almost day 1 of his career for not being a hard-nosed rebounder. While some criticism is warranted, it is probably unfair to expect him to average 12 rebounds a game. He’s not a centre, he’s being asked to play as one. He doesn’t have the body to bang with the Dwight Howards and Reggie Evanses of the Eastern conference. That said, 3.5 rebounds per game for a 7-footer is not acceptable. As the majority of his offensive game is predicated on being a strong shooter, his offensive rebounding numbers will likely be low, and that’s something we have to accept. It’s the price you pay for having an extra dimension as a threat, and can be compensated by Jamario Moon, Carlos Delfino and Anthony Parker being above-average rebounders for their positions. It’s the defensive rebounding that is shockingly low. There is a theory of rebounding that says that a 7-foot pylon with a glove attached to an arm on either side would gather a certain amount of rebounds by sheer chance and the rules of the game. Andrea is certainly hovering around that number. He’s not as physically strong as Dirk is or was, but there’s no reason he can’t be averaging upwards of 5 defensive boards a game. Fortunately the team hasn’t been severely out-rebounded this year, or the boo-birds would be calling for Bargs’ blood even more than they are now.

Around the League

For the last 3 years in my pre-season predictions in the forums, I’ve asked the question “Is this the year Atlanta finally show they’re more than just talent?” So far, they have not. This year, they’re riding “high” (in quotes because hey, it’s the East) at the 8^th spot, and looking strong. Joe Johnson is a true leader, Josh Smith is the next Shawn Marion (not that the original is going anywhere soon), and Horford and Marvin Williams have proven that they belong in this league. With their point guard situation being hugely in question, with Claxton out injured and Lue not playing, their position can only improve when they fix this issue.

Washington are hovering around the midpoint of the East, within striking distance of Orlando in the Central. Without Agent 0. Caron Butler is having a wonderful season, and Antawn Jamison is back to his standout self. Antonio Daniels, DeShawn Stevenson and Roger Mason Jr have all picked up the slack admirably. When Arenas comes back, he might just find that his large mouth and questionable attitude are being offered to LA, Phoenix and Utah…

Milwaukee are showing that the injuries were not their only problem last year. Michael Redd is in the same boat as Chris Bosh – one of the best second stars in the league, but not good enough to carry a team. The people around him are not getting it done either.

How good is the Southwest Division? New Orleans and Dallas tied, and in 3 other divisions that tie would be for first. As it is, they’re a game behind San Antonio. This one could go to the wire. The Hornets are possibly not deep enough to maintain this pace (their bench averages fewer minutes than any other), but trading Peja for some bench help at the deadline could easily fix that. Dallas and San Antonio, of course, are here every year…